New OCTA forecast: COVID-19 cases in PH may hit 8,000 a day by end-March, 18,000 by mid-April

CNN – Published Mar 14, 2021 7:13:23 PM

Metro Manila — The independent research group monitoring the pandemic in the country has an updated COVID-19 projection with grimmer figures.

Prof. Guido David of the OCTA Research said on Sunday that new cases nationwide may jump to 8,000 in a day by month-end if the highly transmissible virus is not contained. This may shoot up to around 17,000 to 18,000 by mid-April, he added.

This new forecast is higher than the group’s earlier estimate of 6,000 new cases by end-March, which was released just last week. It also came a day after the country listed an additional 5,000 infections, the steepest rise in nearly seven months.

Authorities, including the Department of Health officials, have attributed the spike in numbers to the public’s reported dwindling compliance with health protocols. OCTA also earlier said the presence of new and more transmissible variants may be partly to blame for the fast-rising figures, noting the original strain “does not spread this quickly,” assuming health protocols are followed.

New OCTA forecast: COVID-19 cases in PH may hit 8,000 a day by end-March, 18,000 by mid-April

By Kristel Limpot, CNN Philippines

Published Mar 14, 2021 7:13:23 PMhttps://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2021/3/14/new-OCTA-covid-projections-march-april.html?????fbclid&width=451&layout=standard&action=like&size=small&show_faces=false&share=true&height=35&appId=343451476306798

Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, March 14) — The independent research group monitoring the pandemic in the country has an updated COVID-19 projection with grimmer figures.

The National Capital Region continues to account for the bulk of the new patients, according to David. He also said the region could record as many as 5,000 to 6,000 daily in two weeks.

“Tapos by April, pwede tayong umabot ng 14,000 sa Metro Manila, isang araw lang ‘yun. Gano’n kasi kabilis tumaas ‘yun eh, ‘yung bilang ng kaso,” he said.

[Translation: Then, by April, we may reach 14,000 cases in Metro Manila in just one day. That’s how fast the number of cases can rise.]

It is thus not unlikely for healthcare workers to call for another “timeout” if hospitals are once again overwhelmed, David said. In August last year, the medical community asked the government to reimpose stricter quarantine rules for two weeks in Metro Manila and nearby provinces to help ease the strain on the healthcare system, as the nation reached its peak in cases.

David noted the latest projection is based on the virus’ current reproduction number in the country, which is now at 1.95. This means nearly two people have been infected by a single COVID-19 patient.

Meanwhile, the DOH said they acknowledge the forecast, but stressed that “as with all other projections, these are based on assumptions.”

“Ultimately, we want to instill the idea that whatever the status of our pandemic situation, it is not permanent, it is reversible,” it said. “We’ve reversed the peak before, we can do it again.”

The department reiterated that compliance with the minimum health standards is key in bringing down the numbers and in preventing further mutations of the virus. Among others, this means the proper wearing of face masks (with both nose and mouth covered), observing social distancing (staying at least a meter apart from others when outdoors and an even greater distance when indoors), and ensuring proper ventilation in public and indoor spaces.

In a bid to reverse the upward trend, Metro Manila mayors have decided to impose uniform curfew hours, which will be from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m, for two weeks beginning March 15. Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Chairman Benjamin Abalos Jr. also said the local chief executives will meet more regularly in the next two weeks to discuss COVID-19 developments and protocols.

SOURCE: https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2021/3/14/new-OCTA-covid-projections-march-april.html????