TROPICAL STORM “ULYSSES” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AND ACCELERATES WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
Issued at 11:00 am, 10 November 2020
Tropical Storm “Ulysses”
Tropical Cyclone: WARNING
- Strong winds: More areas in CALABARZON will be placed under TCWS #1 in the next bulletin. TCWS #2 may be hoisted in some areas of Bicol Region this afternoon. Based on the intensity forecast, the highest wind signal to be hoisted during the passage of “ULYSSES” will be TCWS #3.
- Heavy rainfall: Today, the tail-end of a cold front (shear line) will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and Apayao. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains due to “ULYSSES” will also be experienced over Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern and Central Visayas, Caraga, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi. Moderate to heavy rains associated with the rainbands of “ULYSSES” will begin affecting Bicol Region and portions of Eastern Visayas tomorrow.
- Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
- Storm Surge: In the next 48 hours, moderate to high risk of storm surge of 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of CALABARZON, Aurora, Camarines Provinces, Catanduanes, Albay, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Romblon, and Marinduque, the western coastal area of Masbate including Burias Island, and the northern coastal areas of Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro including Lubang Island. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
- In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) will be experienced over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon and the seaboards of Kalayaan Islands due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. Meanwhile, “ULYSSES” will also bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the seaboards of areas under TCWS and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar (that are not under TCWS). Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for mariners of small seacrafts.
- Moderate to rough seas will be experienced over the western seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions
- Track: On the forecast track, Tropical Storm “ULYSSES” will move generally northwestward today, then turn westward tomorrow. On the forecast track, the center of “ULYSSES” is more likely to make landfall over Quezon on Thursday morning, with a close approach of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte tomorrow afternoon and evening, respectively. However, slight southward shift in the orientation of the track forecast shows an increasing likelihood of landfall over Bicol Region tomorrow afternoon or evening.
- Intensity: “ULYSSES” is forecast to intensify into a severe tropical storm tonight. Owing to favorable conditions, this storm may reach typhoon category by tomorrow morning and reach its peak intensity (130-155 km/h) tomorrow afternoon or evening. Landfall at or near peak intensity is highly likely.
Location of Eye/center
At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “ULYSSES” was estimated based on all available data at 475 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (13.4 °N, 128.6 °E )Movement
Moving Northwestward at 15 km/hStrength
Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h
SOURCE: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2
