PAGASA announces end of El Niño, notes possible La Niña transition by Q3


Jun 7, 2024 10:26 AM

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Friday, June 7, announced the conclusion of the El Niño climate phenomenon, as conditions returned to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral phase, with neither La Niña nor El Niño present.

PAGASA explained that the end of El Niño was marked by a significant shift in the climate patterns of the tropical Pacific region.

“With these developments, the final advisory for El Niño (2023-2024) is issued and the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System is now lowered to inactive (ENSO-neutral) while the La Niña Watch remains in effect,” PAGASA said.

However, it pointed out that even with the prevailing ENSO-neutral conditions and the dominance of the southwest monsoon, certain regions of the country may still experience lingering effects of El Niño, including “warmer-than-usual surface temperatures and below-normal rainfall.”

In July 2023, PAGASA announced “weak” El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, which escalated to a “strong” phase by January to February of this year. 

This phenomenon caused warmer-than-usual surface temperatures and below-normal rainfall in the Philippines, resulting in drought conditions, agricultural losses, and water shortages.

La Niña looms

Meanwhile, based on PAGASA forecasts, there is a potential transition from the current ENSO-neutral state to La Niña, with a probability estimated at around 69 percent by the July-August-September 2024 season.

PAGASA advised all concerned government agencies and the public to remain vigilant and take precautionary measures against potential climate impacts.

La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically brings increased rainfall to the Philippines. 

This phenomenon often results in heavy rainfall, leading to flooding, landslides, and other water-related hazards.


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