OCTA projection: Up to 6,000 new daily COVID-19 cases in PH by end-March

CNN -Published Mar 7, 2021 2:09:12 PM

Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, March 7) — The country could see as many as 6,000 new COVID-19 infections a day by month-end, according to the latest OCTA projections.

In a report on Sunday, the independent research group said the single-day nationwide tally could grow to around 5,000 to 6,000 by the end of March, as the increase in the country’s cases continue to pick up speed.

By March 21, OCTA also said the daily case count in the National Capital Region — which appears to be the main driver behind the recent surge — could reach 2,000, which could further rise to 3,000 before April. This is based on the virus’ current reproduction number of 1.66 in the region. The researchers noted that the last time NCR had logged this rate of increase was in July last year.

“Based on our analysis of the data and the past trends in the NCR, we believe that a surge is already underway in some LGUs (local government units) in the region,” it said.

Unlike past surges, the current one has “spread very quickly in a short period,” according to OCTA. While verification through genome sequencing is still needed, the group said it believes the spike in Metro Manila may have been caused by the new and more transmissible variants, first detected in the United Kingdom and in South Africa, which it said may overwhelm the region if left unabated in the next few weeks.

“The original strain does not spread this quickly considering the health guidelines in place,” it explained.

“It is important to stress the urgency of the situation as the UK and South African variants, which have already been identified in the NCR, are game-changing variants because they are more contagious and lethal and can potentially undermine our vaccination program,” it added.

It also attributed the upward trend to increased people mobility as the country further expands economic activities, as well as to “poor or lax border controls, sparse testing, and leaky quarantines.”

Rising figures in NCR

Metro Manila’s new daily cases over the past week had averaged at 1,025. This is up by 42% from the preceding week and is a 130% increase from two weeks ago, OCTA said. Just this Saturday, the capital region reported 1,464 new patients, or around 42% of the country’s daily count which jumped to over 3,400.

NCR’s positivity rate, or the percentage of those infected out of all tested, increased to an average of 8%. This is considered high, as the World Health Organization recommends that the rate be maintained below 5%.

Four LGUs in the region — Pasay, Makati, Malabon and Navotas — were identified as high-risk areas, although OCTA said the trends in Malabon and Navotas have slowed down. Pasay City has the highest daily attack rate at 30 per 100,000 among LGUs, while Makati City breached 80% utilization for both hospital and ICU beds.

Quezon City, Taguig, Malabon, Muntinlupa and Pateros had recorded more than 60% hospital bed use, while Las Piñas and Mandaluyong exceeded 70% ICU bed occupancy. Overall, NCR hospital bed occupancy was 44%, while the ICU utilization was 53% as of March 5.

Among barangays, Barangay 76 in Pasay had the highest number of new cases from Feb. 28 to March 6, after 126 more residents fell ill. Fort Bonifacio in Taguig came next with 102, followed by Pio del Pilar in Makati with 94. Five barangays in Makati were in the top 20 list, while Pasig and Quezon City had three each.

As for areas outside Metro Manila, OCTA said Cebu City, Lapu-Lapu, Mandaue, and Davao City are now on a downward trend. Baguio City, on the other hand, is also seeing an uptick in infections.

What should be done now?

OCTA urged officials to implement small, targeted lockdowns with stricter border controls, and to expand their health care system in preparation for potential outbreaks. Efforts to test, trace, and isolate should also be ramped up, the group said.

“While the surge in COVID-19 cases in the NCR is a serious cause for concern, it is still in its early stages, and we believe it can still be mitigated or even reversed,” OCTA said.

The experts also appealed for the public’s adherence to health protocols, as it reported a “deteriorating compliance due to pandemic fatigue,” especially in metropolitan areas. LGUs could likewise be failing in properly enforcing regulations, they said.

In addition, the national government should consider recalibrating protocols for international travelers entering the country, as “some level of ineffectiveness” in the existing guidelines is apparent, according to OCTA. It also exhorted the government to ensure the urgent and efficient deployment of vaccines this March and advised frontliners to have themselves inoculated as soon as possible.

“We subscribe to the belief that the best vaccine is the vaccine available at this time. For now, these are the vaccines developed by Oxford/AstraZeneca and Sinovac,” OCTA said.

The country so far has tallied 594,412 COVID-19 cases, with 545,853 recoveries and 12,516 deaths.

SOURCE: https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2021/3/7/PH-covid-cases-6000-end-March-octa-projection.html?%3F%3F&fbclid=IwAR0n81OAdD1rY1DvbJw2xvenPecQp3yvW-egHfr-DfOZIaV1hmAn6ZC3ZJ4