DOH testing finally ramping up at above 10,000, but still nowhere near target of 30,000 a day

Posted at Jun 09 2020 09:09 PM

MANILA — COVID-19 testing is finally ramping up as the 14-day mark approaches following the institution of a General Community Quarantine (GCQ) in the National Capital Region. But the rate of testing still leaves much to be desired.

For the first time, the health department and its accredited testing laboratories have been able to string together five straight days of at least 10,000 tests, peaking at 12,546 on June 6, the most number of tests conducted in a day. Unfortunately, it fell back below the 10-thousand mark the next day, hitting only 8,975. This shows the government is still having problems maintaining elevated testing operations.

This chart shows the Department of Health (DOH) was able to breach the 10,000 tests per day level in mid-May, but again, wasn’t able to sustain it. The goal was to reach 30,000 tests per day by the end of May, leading on to 50,000 tests a day. These goals were set so the government can achieve its goal of testing about 2 percent of the Philippine population of 109 million. As of June 7, the total number of unique individuals tested was 406,344, or a little under two-fifth of one percent of the total Philippine population. Testing has a long way to go.

This second chart shows the number of unique individuals tested each day, with the green portion of the bar graphs representing negative test results, and the red portions representing test results that were positive for COVID-19. More tests covering more of the population should, in theory, detect more COVID-19 cases. The number of positive test results will be something to look out for as testing ramps up toward the 30-thousand-a-day level. The number of positive test results will naturally accumulate, but it is important to compare those numbers to the number of individuals tested.

This can be measured by the positivity rate, or the number of positive test results divided by the total number of unique individuals tested. As of June 7, that rate was 7%, meaning 7 out of every 100 persons tested were positive for COVID-19. This figure is significantly lower than the 17% recorded in early April. If the COVID-19 outbreak is successfully contained, this measure will naturally go down moving forward, as the number of tests conducted, the denominator of the ratio, increases with the overall testing effort to include those outside the vulnerable groups. A sharp increase in this ratio would indicate a second wave of infections is starting. That is something we don’t want, and have to watch for carefully.

This fourth chart shows the daily positivity rate. While the number of positive individuals reported by labs is increasing, the daily positivity rate is not. The percentage of those testing positive fluctuates per day, so the best way to determine if there is a trend forming either upward or downwards is by using the 7-day moving average, shown by the blue line. The line graph looks a bit flat in June, with an upward slant forming slightly over the last weekend.

If you look at the rest of the chart, however, the blue line appears much tamer now than it did in April or May. Again, confirmed cases can increase in the coming days, but it is also because we are testing more. The positivity rate will be the better measure. It will be interesting to see how it behaves once testing hits 30,000 or even 50,000 a day.

The best trend, however, as of late, is the significant reduction in backlogs by the DOH and its partner-laboratories in COVID-19 testing. Backlogs refer to the number of test results that have yet to be processed. There was a small uptrend forming from June 4 up to June 7, with a dip on June 6. But these results are nowhere near the monstrous amount of backlogs seen in May. This means the laboratories have gotten busy with confirming all tests done, every day, including work left over from previous days.

The National Economic and Development Authority is also working to help the health department improve its data gathering and processing. The preferable number for backlogs is zero, but this is a great development. This also means the rest of the numbers, from positivity rate to recoveries, are more credible.

Government testing is on a roll, headed in the right direction. The challenge is to maintain this, and increase the level of testing toward the daily goals of 30,000, and eventually 50,000. This will be more important in the coming days as government braces for the initial impact of easing restrictions to General Community Quarantine level in the National Capital Region.

If the dreaded second wave of COVID-19 infections is happening because of this, the government will need efficient and widespread testing in place to catch it early.

SOURCE: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/09/20/doh-testing-finally-ramping-up-at-above-10000-but-still-nowhere-near-target-of-30000-a-day